{
  "title": "The research notebook, at a glance",
  "date": "12 November 2026",
  "snapshot_utc": "2026-11-12T21:32:12.400857+00:00",
  "scope": "Selected current rental campaigns and research results \u2014 not an all-time account reconciliation.",
  "spending": {
    "observed_rental_usd": 19.499,
    "qwen_cap_usd": 24,
    "glm_cap_usd": 10,
    "unbilled": "Qwen cached 11 Nov 08:58 EST; GLM cached 10 Nov 14:25 EST. Later/unbilled charges and settlement unknown; no fresh billing receipt.",
    "items": [
      {
        "title": "Qwen one-pass model",
        "usd": 4.856,
        "group": "Qwen",
        "asof": "11 Nov 08:58 EST",
        "status": "Completed; posted charges by exact instance",
        "evidence": "research/comparison-2026-11-03/full-pool-e3-shutdown-20261111.json"
      },
      {
        "title": "Qwen failed hosts",
        "usd": 0.899,
        "group": "Qwen",
        "asof": "11 Nov 08:58 EST",
        "status": "Two failed hosts; included once by exact instance",
        "evidence": "research/comparison-2026-11-03/full-pool-e3-shutdown-20261111.json"
      },
      {
        "title": "Qwen three-pass run",
        "usd": 13.206,
        "group": "Qwen",
        "asof": "11 Nov 08:58 EST",
        "status": "Completed; instance absent in saved shutdown receipt; posted charges may settle",
        "evidence": "research/comparison-2026-11-03/full-pool-e3-shutdown-20261111.json"
      },
      {
        "title": "GLM CUDA pilot",
        "usd": 0.538,
        "group": "GLM",
        "asof": "10 Nov 14:25 EST",
        "status": "Four attempts; rentals destroyed; provisional",
        "evidence": "reports/glm-gpu/pilot-charges.json"
      }
    ],
    "historical_api": {
      "title": "30 October: 6,000 generated passages",
      "usage_usd": 6.9033435075,
      "reserve_usd": 0.19628235,
      "cap_usd": 18,
      "evidence": "reports/2026-10-30-router-expansion.md",
      "note": "Separate historical API project; not included in the rental subtotal. Earlier pilot, local electricity, subscriptions, free Kaggle quota and other older rentals are not reconciled here."
    },
    "observed_date": "2026-11-10"
  },
  "leaderboard": {
    "score": 0.682,
    "rank": 614,
    "teams": 5669,
    "leader": 0.769,
    "asof": "12 Nov 16:30 EST",
    "history": [
      {
        "label": "Previous public ensemble",
        "score": 0.651,
        "date": "27 Oct",
        "evidence": "reports/2026-10-29-live-review.json"
      },
      {
        "label": "Public reproduction",
        "score": 0.681,
        "date": "10 Nov",
        "evidence": "reports/2026-11-10-scored-0681-reproduction.md"
      },
      {
        "label": "Matched public-only control",
        "score": 0.682,
        "date": "10 Nov",
        "evidence": "reports/2026-11-10-scored-0682-control.md"
      }
    ],
    "comparisons": [
      {
        "label": "+10% old Qwen",
        "score": 0.678,
        "delta": -0.004
      },
      {
        "label": "+10% tokenizer",
        "score": 0.675,
        "delta": -0.007
      },
      {
        "label": "+ token and byte",
        "score": 0.669,
        "delta": -0.013
      },
      {
        "label": "0.683 recipe control",
        "score": 0.679,
        "delta": -0.003
      },
      {
        "label": "+10% full-pool Qwen",
        "score": 0.675,
        "delta": -0.004
      }
    ],
    "pending": "Saved 11 Nov 03:00 EST receipts: 0.683-title control scored 0.679; full-pool Qwen 0.675, down 0.004 versus matched control. Best unchanged 0.682. Three-pass and newer CPU proxies are not board scores.",
    "asof_short": "12 Nov 16:30 EST"
  },
  "results": [
    {
      "title": "Full-pool Qwen",
      "kind": "validation",
      "value": "+3.37 pp",
      "delta": 0.033714,
      "baseline": 0.587169,
      "score": 0.620882,
      "detail": "Standalone: five prompt folds, one seed. Trainer and exposure changed together.",
      "evidence": "reports/2026-11-10-full-pool-onepass-folds.md",
      "brief": "Own model \u00b7 one seed; trainer + exposure changed"
    },
    {
      "title": "Mistral diversity lead",
      "kind": "validation",
      "value": "+1.78 pp",
      "delta": 0.017805,
      "baseline": 0.622322,
      "score": 0.640127,
      "detail": "Older full-stack reference, cross-fitted blend weight; author-supplied predictions, not fully nested. Own full training staged.",
      "evidence": "reports/2026-11-10-public-mistral-olmo-oof.md",
      "brief": "Public predictions \u00b7 older stack; own training next"
    },
    {
      "title": "OLMo diversity lead",
      "kind": "validation",
      "value": "+0.89 pp",
      "delta": 0.008906,
      "baseline": 0.622322,
      "score": 0.631228,
      "detail": "Same older reference; author-supplied predictions and cross-fitted weight. Interval crosses zero; own weights not reproduced.",
      "evidence": "reports/2026-11-10-public-mistral-olmo-oof.md",
      "brief": "Public predictions \u00b7 older stack; interval spans zero"
    },
    {
      "title": "Liquid frozen encoder",
      "kind": "validation",
      "value": "\u22120.74 pp",
      "delta": -0.007409893,
      "baseline": 0.5430599055,
      "score": 0.5356500124,
      "detail": "5% blend on old public reference; exact checkpoint and all 2,699 rows. Full-backbone training is a separate experiment.",
      "evidence": "research/comparison-2026-11-03/liquid-frozen-result-20261110.json",
      "brief": "Frozen features only; supervised training continues"
    },
    {
      "title": "Pruned GLM",
      "kind": "engineering",
      "value": "CUDA works",
      "detail": "45 layers, 62 exact shard hashes. Three passages at 0.743\u20130.794 seconds; 36.80 GiB peak reserved. First eight experts, not calibrated. No classifier accuracy yet.",
      "evidence": "reports/2026-11-10-glm-cuda-pilot.md",
      "measured": {
        "layers": 45,
        "passages": 3,
        "min_seconds": 0.743,
        "max_seconds": 0.794,
        "peak_reserved_gib": 36.8
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "Qwen three-pass",
      "kind": "validation",
      "value": "\u22121.19 pp",
      "detail": "Completed five folds and final model, saved 11 Nov 08:52 EST. Standalone declined versus one-pass; 10% replacement gained 0.003341 on learned-group proxy. Not a leaderboard result; interval spans zero.",
      "evidence": "research/comparison-2026-11-03/full-pool-e3-matched-result-20261111.json",
      "baseline": 0.6208824260502113,
      "score": 0.6090206313696247,
      "delta": -0.011861794680586629
    },
    {
      "title": "Liquid supervised encoder",
      "kind": "validation",
      "value": "+0.44 pp",
      "baseline": 0.5430599055431269,
      "score": 0.5475018642803877,
      "delta": 0.004441958737260832,
      "detail": "Three seeds, five prompt folds; 5% blend on older public reference gained 0.004442. Explored share, not a board score. No active-job claim.",
      "evidence": "research/comparison-2026-11-03/liquid-three-seed-ensemble-result-20261111.json"
    },
    {
      "title": "Complementary CPU corrections",
      "kind": "validation",
      "value": "+0.15 pp",
      "baseline": 0.7576186925180214,
      "score": 0.7591001739995029,
      "delta": 0.0014814814814814816,
      "detail": "Saved 11 Nov proxy: combined Qwen/GPT and byte corrections, complete layout; interval spans zero. CPU replay ready; exact dual-T4 and board pending. Paired-source style also replayed, no board score.",
      "evidence": "research/comparison-2026-11-03/qwen-gpt-disjoint-replay-20261111.json"
    }
  ],
  "next_bets": [
    "Submit the three-pass Qwen on top of the public 0.684 recipe, against the plain recipe.",
    "Train our own Mistral model, the strongest different-model idea so far.",
    "Build our own pruned GLM and fine-tune it (paused for now)."
  ],
  "notes": [
    "Percentage-point validation gains use different named baselines. Never add them or compare them with leaderboard gains.",
    "Validation shares explored on shared prompts; public-model training exposure not independently established.",
    "No all-time spend total is claimed. Historical API usage is separate; other older work is not reconciled.",
    "Project budget caps are separate limits, not money spent or a fungible account balance.",
    "Creative collection saved receipts as of 2026-11-10T23:00:18.157862+00:00: returned usage $6.051409, unknown-charge reserve $0.175014, separate $10 cap. Includes failed attempts; not in rental subtotal and not a settled invoice. See reports/scorecard/creative-usage.json.",
    "New saved receipts reviewed 11 Nov: Qwen campaign $18.961 posted by instance, replacing (not adding to) prior $8.047 campaign snapshot; separate GLM $0.538 cached 10 Nov. Selected rental subtotal $19.499; Qwen cap $24, GLM cap $10. Not all-time spend or settled invoice.",
    "Creative wave two summary adds $2.727149 usage-or-reserve to wave one $6.226423, combined $8.953572 under $10 cap. New itemized actual/reserve split was not reconciled; preserve wave-one actual $6.051409 and reserve $0.175014 as cached 10 Nov, not a new total.",
    "Padding-dependent creative results superseded: corrected joint specialists gained 0.001111 on older reference; validation only, not a leaderboard gain.",
    "Current status and submission ledger lag newer original receipts: best remains 0.682, board rank and completed three-pass model use the dated receipts linked here.",
    "12 Nov review: local expansion watcher and rsync observed at 16:30 EST; this verifies monitoring only, not remote training. Remote process state and current provider billing were not queried.",
    "12 Nov community coverage: newest-topic listing and two title-only threads read; three changed threads deferred. Public notebook listing remains cached 11 Nov 20:32 EST. Four Kaggle read requests total; no retries, experiments or paid calls."
  ],
  "evidence": {
    "leaderboard": "status.json",
    "queue": "QUEUE.md",
    "qwen": "reports/2026-11-10-full-pool-onepass-folds.md",
    "glm": "reports/2026-11-10-glm-cuda-pilot.md",
    "mistral": "reports/2026-11-10-public-mistral-olmo-oof.md",
    "creative": "research/comparison-2026-11-03/creative-glm-kimi-matched-result-20261110.json",
    "creative_cost": "reports/scorecard/creative-usage.json",
    "board": "reports/scorecard/board/2026-11-12.json",
    "scored_pair": "research/comparison-2026-11-03/submissions-58217555-58217579-scored-20261111.json",
    "qwen_cost": "research/comparison-2026-11-03/full-pool-e3-shutdown-20261111.json",
    "creative_wave2": "research/comparison-2026-11-03/creative-wave2-summary-20261110.json"
  },
  "status_line": "Best unchanged at 0.682; rank 614 of 5,669 at 16:30 EST. Leader 0.769. No new scored improvement.",
  "history_intro": "Every day of the project, from the first Kaggle try on 26 October to today: what we tried, what happened, and what it cost.",
  "spending_line": "Cached posted rental charges; data usage is separate and provisional",
  "spend_log": [
    {
      "date": "2026-11-11",
      "what": "Qwen three-pass training run",
      "kind": "GPU rental",
      "usd": 13.206,
      "evidence": "research/comparison-2026-11-03/full-pool-e3-shutdown-20261111.json"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-11-10",
      "what": "Qwen one-pass training run",
      "kind": "GPU rental",
      "usd": 4.856,
      "evidence": "research/comparison-2026-11-03/full-pool-e3-shutdown-20261111.json"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-11-10",
      "what": "Two Qwen hosts that failed",
      "kind": "GPU rental",
      "usd": 0.899,
      "evidence": "research/comparison-2026-11-03/full-pool-e3-shutdown-20261111.json"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-11-10",
      "what": "GLM test on a rented card, four attempts",
      "kind": "GPU rental",
      "usd": 0.538,
      "evidence": "reports/glm-gpu/pilot-charges.json"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-11-10",
      "what": "Creative-writing passages from other models",
      "kind": "Data generation",
      "usd": 6.05,
      "evidence": "reports/scorecard/creative-usage.json"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-30",
      "what": "6,000 generated passages",
      "kind": "Data generation",
      "usd": 6.9,
      "evidence": "reports/2026-10-30-router-expansion.md"
    }
  ],
  "chapters": [
    {
      "when": "26 to 31 October: getting on the board",
      "text": "We split out our own repository, found both early Kaggle tries had crashed, then scored 0.651 with the public ensemble. Our own classifier scored 0.348 and our own Qwen model 0.585."
    },
    {
      "when": "1 to 5 November: checking everything",
      "text": "We repaired the memory crash, tested 6,000 bought passages three times, and watched their small gain disappear. An outside review said ten days of checks had not moved the board."
    },
    {
      "when": "9 to 10 November: run the public recipe",
      "text": "We reproduced the public 0.681 notebook, then reached 0.682, our best. Every model we mixed into it scored lower on the board."
    },
    {
      "when": "11 November: the next round",
      "text": "The three-pass Qwen model finished training and was picked for the next test. The public 0.684 recipe is real. Style and GPT-correction ideas added nothing."
    }
  ],
  "contact": {
    "label": "Contact Mark on X:",
    "handle": "@82deutschmark",
    "url": "https://x.com/82deutschmark"
  },
  "caps": [
    {
      "name": "Qwen rental cap",
      "used": 18.961,
      "cap": 24
    },
    {
      "name": "GLM rental cap",
      "used": 0.538,
      "cap": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "Creative data cap",
      "used": 6.05,
      "cap": 10
    }
  ]
}